We are constructive on European covered bond ratings. European banks entered 2025 in solid shape, while a stable European economy will support rating levels. But investors will need to remain vigilant for risks that could catch the market off guard.

Commercial real estate will stabilise in 2025. Refinancing risk will remain elevated for the office sector but improving financing conditions and good fundamentals will improve access to capital for other sectors.

Italian NPL collections increased by 8% month-on-month to EUR 187m in November, continuing the trend observed over the past two years. However, volumes were 21% lower than the average for the same month in the 2022/2023 period.

Scope Ratings publishes its final rating methodology for CRE securities and CMBS following a call for comments. The proposed update clarifies and refines the analytical approach. The application of the methodology affects several outstanding ratings.

Scope’s ABS mandates continue to grow with Asti Group RMBS IV, a securitisation of prime Italian residential mortgages arranged by UniCredit. The mandate follows the ECB’s inclusion of Scope’s ABS ratings in its credit assessment framework (ECAF).

Italian NPL collections rose by 11% month-on-month in October but were significantly below the volumes recorded in the same month of the past two years.

Consumer, corporate and SME ABS and RMBS have experienced positive ratings drift since the pandemic, a period characterised by extremely low levels of borrower insolvencies, mainly due to powerful policy measures in support of households and businesses.

Scope Ratings has published the performance overview of notes issued by Marzio Finance, a EUR 10bn securitisation programme backed by ‘cessione del quinto’ and ‘delegazione di pagamento’ (CQS) loans originated by IBL Banca.

Homeowners in some European markets prefer floating-rate mortgages while others prefer longer-dated fixed interest rates. Given that borrowing costs are all linked to the same ECB rates, this is somewhat counter intuitive.

Global Capital has opened the call for nominations for its European Securitization Awards 2025. Awards are selected following a two-stage process: nominations will form the basis of a shortlist for each award that is then voted on by market participants.