Norwegian savings banks have displayed strong profitability on the back of the supportive interest-rate environment. We expect this to continue. The pace of credit expansion has abated but the banks have managed to continue growing their loan books.

May 16, 2024 15:30 (CEST)

Non-performing loans (NPLs) of EU banks continued to increase, hitting EUR 364.9bn according to the EBA’s latest Risk Dashboard showing data to Q4 2023. But the consolidated NPL ratio, at 1.85%, is still close to the historical low.

Euro area governments unable to put in place consistent medium-term fiscal plans face credit-rating pressure even though reducing public borrowing is possible, including for highly indebted countries.

When it comes to assessing banks, high customer satisfaction, progress in digitalisation or brand value do not win arguments in investment, credit, or rating committees if financial metrics are not sufficiently reassuring.

After five years of near-zero cumulative growth since the pandemic, Germany’s economic recovery is unlikely to accelerate without adequate policy reform and an increase in net investment, supported by its significant fiscal space.

A full-scale Middle-East conflict is unlikely but any further escalation of tensions would have significant adverse consequences for commodity markets and inflation, affirming geopolitical developments as a core credit challenge globally.

After a strong January, EUR benchmark covered bond issuance slowed in February and March. Some of the reluctance to issue may have been driven by Germany’s specialised commercial mortgage lenders, given rising tensions in commercial real estate.

Tuesday, April 23rd 2024 - 3:30 PM (CEST)

Europe’s real estate companies grapple with negative credit outlook; German banks look resilient despite CRE risks; bond market access is a differentiator for property companies; systemic risks are still high in European housing