The protectionist tilt of US trade policy has unsettled investors, partly by clouding the outlook for global growth. But for European companies with US exposure, the impact of higher tariffs on cashflow and credit quality are mixed and case specific.

The sharp correction in European banks’ share prices following the announcement of US tariffs on EU imports reflects mounting investor concerns about the potential implications for asset quality and profitability in a traditionally high-beta sector.

Scope’s 12-month trailing ratings drift for structured finance transactions moved into positive territory in the first quarter of 2025, with a positive ratio of upgrades over downgrades not seen since 2022.

Scope Ratings calls for comments on its Pharmaceutical Companies’ Rating Methodology by 4 May 2025. The update strengthens, refines and further clarifies Scope’s analytical approach. No impact is expected on out-standing issuer and debt ratings.

The US’s imposition of 25% tariffs on car imports comes at a bad time for European auto makers which face structural challenges in the shift to electric vehicles, growing competition from Chinese brands, and relatively soft demand in Europe and China.

The methodology is now final following a call-for-comments period and will apply to all issuer and debt ratings of automotive suppliers. No impact is expected on outstanding issuer and debt ratings.

French banks’ profits will grow moderately in 2025, supported by net interest income and commissions, notably in corporate and investment banking. But improvements in profitability could be slowed by the subdued performance of the domestic economy.

The proposed update refines and further clarifies Scope’s approach. Scope is calling for comments on the methodology by 27 April 2025. The methodology as proposed might have a limited negative impact on the outstanding ratings of two issuers.

Italian NPL collections fell 11% month on month in February, a noticeable deviation from past years, where February collections have typically been aligned with or slightly above January’s.

We expect a modest deterioration in EU banks’ asset quality, mainly driven by rising pressures in the EU corporate sector. But a worsening of the global operating environment could accelerate this deterioration, increasing credit risks for the banks.