Spanish banks enjoyed a strong Q3 driven again by high interest margins and low provisions. The challenge now is to return to steady loan growth while generating more commissions as interest margins shrink. Extension of the bank tax could erode profits.

The credit rating Outlooks for supranational institutions and multilateral development banks (MDBs) rated by Scope remain Stable, signalling that risks facing the high-rated issuers are balanced going into the new year despite geopolitical uncertainties.

Italian banks have revised their 2024 earnings forecasts after strong nine-month results underpinned by resilient net interest income, a rebound in fees, and solid credit quality. Lenders are now focused on stabilising profits through the rate cycle.

Homeowners in some European markets prefer floating-rate mortgages while others prefer longer-dated fixed interest rates. Given that borrowing costs are all linked to the same ECB rates, this is somewhat counter intuitive.

As challenging as France’s fiscal and political outlooks are, the country’s underlying credit strengths include a favourable profile of government debt – for which there is ample investor appetite – a resilient economy and well-capitalised banks.

The recent UK Court of Appeal ruling in favour of consumers on undisclosed commissions on car finance is expected to have a moderate impact on UK banks rated by Scope, reducing profits at some banks but not posing systemic risk.

Germany needs a stable and reform-oriented government to respond to the impact of president-elect Donald Trump’s potential policy shifts that will impact Germany’s trade, fiscal and defence policies.

Donald Trump’s emphatic victory in the US presidential elections is net credit negative for the US in the medium term by raising financial risks although nearer-term implications for the economy are more mixed.

Even blue-chip companies with the strongest sustainability profiles, including robust ESG-mitigation strategies, have much room to improve their environmental and social impacts.

The UK budget sets an ambitious growth-oriented approach, but questions remain over its ability to meaningfully boost long-run economic growth. The easing of budgetary constraints and reduced monetary flexibility pose credit challenges.