Global ABS 2025 kicks off next Tuesday June 10. We are excited to be a Partner Sponsor of this year’s event and are looking forward to engaging with speakers and delegates.

UK bank profitability will remain sound in 2025. Asset quality is weakening modestly but remains resilient, capital is adequate and deposit outflows have reversed. The stable outlooks on our UK bank ratings indicate that risks are broadly balanced.

Bolt-on acquisitions and investments will improve the group’s diversification and consolidate its pan-European market position, but transformational deals remain complex and subject to political barriers.

Italian banks are among the most profitable in Europe and the outlook is favourable, even if we anticipate lower profits in coming quarters. M&A may reshape the sector, though execution risks are rising.

Operating environment assessments, the starting point for the analytical process, reflect regulatory and supervisory convergence. Ratings are determined by economic, sector and bank-specific factors. Despite uncertainties, the picture is resilient.

Italian NPL collections in March rose 45% month on month, consistent with previous years. But while monthly volumes bounced back from a poor February, they were still 43% below the three-year March average.

Wednesday, 28 May, 3 pm CEST

The robust solvency of European banks and their capacity to absorb credit losses from ordinary profitability provide important buffers against credit deterioration at a time when US trade policy is impacting Europe’s growth and interest-rate outlook.

European households will see housing affordability deteriorate as the supply-demand gap persists and prices continue to rise. Stimulus measures are urgently needed to boost housing supply in European countries where the situation is particularly acute.

The first quarter of 2025 saw the highest quarterly issuance of European CMBS since the global financial crisis but refinancing risk for securitised loans is still high, while US tariffs could affect industrial, logistics and retail assets.