Political uncertainty in Romania is complicating fiscal consolidation, raising borrowing costs and delaying reforms linked to EU funding while shifts in United States trade and security policy add further challenges to the fiscal and growth outlooks.

Scope Ratings calls for comments on its Retail and Wholesale Rating Methodology by 26 May 2025. The update strengthens, refines and further clarifies Scope’s analytical approach. The methodology might have a limited negative impact on two issuers ratings.

The first quarter of 2025 saw the highest quarterly issuance of European CMBS since the global financial crisis but refinancing risk for securitised loans is still high, while US tariffs could affect industrial, logistics and retail assets.

Italy’s economy is set to grow more slowly in 2025-26 given US tariffs and delays in recovery-plan investments. Still, reforms and continuing EU-fund deployment should support medium-term growth after 2026.

Five years after the pandemic and the collapse of the output agreement between OPEC and Russia sent oil prices into free fall, oil markets face another shock, this time from changes in US trade policy and in the OPEC+ group’s production limits.

Three scenarios for the sovereign credit outlook have emerged from the uncertainty over US trade policy – "tariff-light", trade war, or a wider economic and financial crisis including the introduction of US capital controls – says Scope Ratings.

Scope Ratings calls for comments on its Chemicals Rating Methodology by 14 May 2025. The update strengthens, refines and further clarifies the analytical approach. The methodology as proposed might have a positive impact of one notch for one rated entity.

The protectionist tilt of US trade policy has unsettled investors, partly by clouding the outlook for global growth. But for European companies with US exposure, the impact of higher tariffs on cashflow and credit quality are mixed and case specific.

Unless Austria’s government undertakes additional reforms to stabilise and reverse rising public debt, public finances will continue to weaken given the modest economic growth outlook and sustained fiscal pressures.

The balance of risks for the global credit outlook remains negative. The United States government’s wide-ranging new import tariffs have increased the likelihood of domestic recession and exacerbated global economic and financial vulnerabilities.