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      United Kingdom: higher taxes or growth needed to reach fiscal targets given spending pressures

      29/11/2023 Research EN

      United Kingdom: higher taxes or growth needed to reach fiscal targets given spending pressures

      The UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio is set to rise above official forecasts given continued pressure for more welfare and government spending unless future governments raise tax revenues, reduce the welfare state or significantly improve growth prospects.

      EU sovereign debt: climate but especially demographics present important long-term risk

      20/11/2023 Research EN

      EU sovereign debt: climate but especially demographics present important long-term risk

      Climate and demographic risks have an important if moderate impact on medium-term public debt trajectories for most EU countries but become increasingly credit relevant and mutually reinforcing in the long run, says Scope Ratings.

      Commerzbank's updated strategy promises profitable future; implementation will be challenging

      20/11/2023 Research EN

      Commerzbank's updated strategy promises profitable future; implementation will be challenging

      Commerzbank’s new three-year growth plan is reliant on durably favourable interest rates, ambitious revenue gains in private and corporate banking, plus benign banking-sector competition and buoyant activity in Germany, leaving room for disappointment.

      Germany: strict debt-brake application fosters discipline but EUR 300bn investment lag remains

      17/11/2023 Research EN

      Germany: strict debt-brake application fosters discipline but EUR 300bn investment lag remains

      The constitutional court ruling underlines Germany’s strong fiscal framework but complicates the government’s ability to address persistent under-investment, which we estimate at around EUR 300bn over the past decade vis-a-vis AAA-rated economies.

      Euro area: a potential oil-price shock could weaken growth, increase inflation and test ratings

      16/11/2023 Research EN

      Euro area: a potential oil-price shock could weaken growth, increase inflation and test ratings

      A wider Middle East conflict could adversely impact the credit ratings of some euro-area sovereigns if this resulted in higher commodity prices, leading to further monetary policy tightening to tame renewed rises in inflation, and thus weaker growth.

      France's fiscal consolidation is challenged by rigid spending, uncertain reform agenda

      7/11/2023 Research EN

      France's fiscal consolidation is challenged by rigid spending, uncertain reform agenda

      The French government is counting on an end to emergency support for business and households, more efficient public spending and above-potential GDP growth to reduce public debt more quickly. It is an optimistic plan given challenges ahead.

      Portugal’s declining debt and stable politics contrast with Spain, driving yield differential

      2/11/2023 Research EN

      Portugal’s declining debt and stable politics contrast with Spain, driving yield differential

      Spain and Portugal, both rated A-/Stable, have shown strong resilience to the Covid-19 and energy shocks and share promising growth outlooks, but diverging debt-to-GDP trajectories leave Spain more exposed to high interest rates and political uncertainty.

      Multilateral development banks: could enhancing almost EUR 1trn in callable capital boost lending?

      23/10/2023 Research EN

      Multilateral development banks: could enhancing almost EUR 1trn in callable capital boost lending?

      Western-led multilateral developments banks have close to EUR 1trn in callable capital, a unique but unused source of funding, which, with appropriate enhancements, could help meet the heightened demand for loans on the banks, says Scope Ratings.

      Poland: pivotal elections bring a pro-European coalition back to the fore

      19/10/2023 Research EN

      Poland: pivotal elections bring a pro-European coalition back to the fore

      The Tusk coalition will have beaten the odds if it secures a parliamentary majority. But while a Tusk coalition will face significant governance and budgetary challenges, the change of government supports the country’s credit standing.

      EU member states face sustained spending pressures: can EU funding or carbon taxes help?

      19/10/2023 Research EN

      EU member states face sustained spending pressures: can EU funding or carbon taxes help?

      Extra spending by EU states on interest, pensions and healthcare is limiting funds needed for defence and green investment, testing NATO spending targets and climate goals. Shifting spending to the supranational level and carbon taxes could help.