With inflation under control, Bulgaria is on track to adopt the euro in January 2026, a development which would support the stability of the highly euroised economy, improve monetary-policy flexibility and enhance the sovereign’s capital-market access.

Scope Ratings has published an update to its Supranational Rating Methodology, with non-material changes. No outstanding ratings are impacted.

Portugal likely faces another minority government after an inconclusive snap parliamentary election which risks complicating policy making, including fiscal and economic reforms.

Without substantive corrective fiscal measures, the US public debt ratio will reach 133% of GDP by 2030, exceeding our forecasts for France (122%) and the UK (111%), while interest payments will average 12% of revenues, at least twice that of peers.

Nicușor Dan’s victory in Romania’s presidential election eases political tensions and supports EU alignment but addressing the widening fiscal deficit, the weak absorption of EU funds and a backlog of reforms remain stark challenges for the authorities.

The Spanish economy’s growth continues to outpace the euro area’s due to improving labour markets, strong tourism receipts and ample EU funds. Still, further fiscal consolidation and reforms are needed to improve Spain’s resilience to potential shocks.

Wednesday, 28 May, 3 pm CEST

Political uncertainty in Romania is complicating fiscal consolidation, raising borrowing costs and delaying reforms linked to EU funding while shifts in United States trade and security policy add further challenges to the fiscal and growth outlooks.

Italy’s economy is set to grow more slowly in 2025-26 given US tariffs and delays in recovery-plan investments. Still, reforms and continuing EU-fund deployment should support medium-term growth after 2026.

Three scenarios for the sovereign credit outlook have emerged from the uncertainty over US trade policy – "tariff-light", trade war, or a wider economic and financial crisis including the introduction of US capital controls – says Scope Ratings.