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      Spain: sovereign borrowing costs contained despite rise in yields, tighter ECB policy

      26/1/2023 Research EN

      Spain: sovereign borrowing costs contained despite rise in yields, tighter ECB policy

      Spain can cope with rising borrowing costs and the ECB’s winding down of its purchases of euro area sovereign bonds due to the improved profile of Spanish public debt and the country’s relatively robust economic outlook.

      Turkey: early election points to growing risk of future disruptive economic adjustment

      24/1/2023 Research EN

      Turkey: early election points to growing risk of future disruptive economic adjustment

      Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is short on time to use the government’s fiscal and monetary space to shore up support for his government as a disruptive rebalancing of the economy looms, hence his decision to hold elections earlier than expected.

      France: government's reform credentials, long-term fiscal resilience hinge on pensions overhaul

      17/1/2023 Research EN

      France: government's reform credentials, long-term fiscal resilience hinge on pensions overhaul

      The French government’s medium-term fiscal credibility and France’s capacity to resist future external shocks are at stake in its contentious pension reform plan, but it is far from the most important determinant of the country’s fiscal outlook.

      Webinar: New conditions for a new year: are inflation, recession, default risks fading?

      12/1/2023 Research EN

      Webinar: New conditions for a new year: are inflation, recession, default risks fading?

      Tuesday, January 24th 2023 - 3:00 PM (CET)

      Norway: sharp rise in revenues from oil and gas activities, lower risk of stranded assets

      20/12/2022 Research EN

      Norway: sharp rise in revenues from oil and gas activities, lower risk of stranded assets

      As a core future energy supplier to the EU, Norway is set to benefit in coming years from long-term supply agreements and lower stranded asset risks.

      Slovakia: political uncertainty and inflation to pressure an already weakened macro fiscal outlook

      16/12/2022 Research EN

      Slovakia: political uncertainty and inflation to pressure an already weakened macro fiscal outlook

      The collapse of Slovakia’s government constitutes another setback for the domestic economy in the middle of an energy crisis, requiring a swift policy response to avoid severe economic and social repercussions.

      Central and Eastern Europe Outlook 2023: growth falters, EU funding crucial as debt payments rise

      15/12/2022 Research EN

      Central and Eastern Europe Outlook 2023: growth falters, EU funding crucial as debt payments rise

      The knock-on effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine, including international sanctions and retaliation by Russia through weaponisation of its energy exports, are key downside risks to sovereign ratings in central and eastern Europe in 2023.

      France: higher interest rates, lower growth to weigh on debt dynamics unless reform accelerates

      15/12/2022 Research EN

      France: higher interest rates, lower growth to weigh on debt dynamics unless reform accelerates

      The French government needs to accelerate structural reforms to achieve its debt-reduction objectives, modest though they are, as interest rates rise and the economy grows more slowly than expected.

      The looming EU climate investment gap presents debt sustainability trade-off

      15/12/2022 Research EN

      The looming EU climate investment gap presents debt sustainability trade-off

      EU countries need to ramp up green investments to achieve their climate objectives, which poses fiscal risks amid a weakened economic outlook and rising interest rates, though the long-term gains of forceful climate action outweigh short-term costs.

      Perspectives souveraines 2023 : ralentissement et inflation mettent les notations sous pression

      12/12/2022 Research FR

      Perspectives souveraines 2023 : ralentissement et inflation mettent les notations sous pression

      Les perspectives pour 2023 sont difficiles à cause de la guerre en Ukraine, d'une inflation élevée, du resserrement monétaire et de finances publiques affaiblies. La croissance mondiale tombera sous son potentiel à 2,6 %, après 3,3 % en 2022.