The Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) sovereign credit outlook is balanced, a rebound in growth broadly offsetting structural pressures amid fiscal and geopolitical challenges. Of 15 rated CEE sovereigns, three have Positive and 12 have Stable Outlooks.

Lithuania is set to outperform Estonia and Latvia fiscally and economically in the short to medium term, driven by structural, cyclical and policy-related factors reflected in latest rating actions on the three Baltic states.

Normalising global economic fundamentals partially offset rising fiscal pressures and geopolitical uncertainty in 2025, ensuring a balanced overall sovereign credit outlook, says Scope Ratings.

We are projecting a rebound in CEE growth from an expected, weak 0.7% in 2023 to 2.5% this year and 3% in 2025. Growth will be driven by lower inflation and higher real wages. The contribution of exports will be limited owing to weak external demand.

Most Central and Eastern European EU member states (CEE-11) have improved public debt profiles in the past decade. Further fiscal consolidation looks difficult but remains crucial to contain debt ratios as funding costs and investment needs rise.

The knock-on effects of Russia’s war on Ukraine, including international sanctions and retaliation by Russia through weaponisation of its energy exports, are key downside risks to sovereign ratings in central and eastern Europe in 2023.

The global economy remains on course for a continued uneven but robust recovery next year, with growth of around 4.5% after 5.8% in 2021, though risk to 2022’s global outlook is skewed to the downside, says Scope Ratings.

The long-term risks to European sovereign creditworthiness from the declining number of people of working age and the region’s ageing populations may be significantly greater than currently assumed, says Scope Ratings.

The UK ranks one place ahead of Ireland but just behind Cyprus and Russia in Scope Ratings’ latest assessment of the most vulnerable economies to external shocks, with the 2021 “risky-3” composed of Lebanon, Zambia and Angola.

Some European countries are more exposed than others to the rising costs of extreme climate events, posing risks of sovereign rating divergence unless mitigating investments and institutional capacities to respond to environmental risks are mobilised.