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      EU’s revised fiscal rules would cut public investment

      19/2/2024 Research EN

      EU’s revised fiscal rules would cut public investment

      The EU’s revised fiscal rules are inadequate with respect to high green, digital and defence investment needs and would result in significant fiscal adjustments and cuts in public investment at a time when the economic growth outlook is already weak.

      Utilities credit outlook: slightly positive, favouring power generators vs grid/network operators

      19/2/2024 Research EN

      Utilities credit outlook: slightly positive, favouring power generators vs grid/network operators

      Europe’s integrated electricity utilities and power generators can look forward to reinforced credit profiles this year, although the change is less pronounced than it was at the beginning of 2023.

      European ESG corporate bonds: pick-up expected after slow 2023

      16/2/2024 Research EN

      European ESG corporate bonds: pick-up expected after slow 2023

      Investor appetite for ESG corporate bonds cooled in 2023 and issuance from European utilities and real estate companies, historically the market’s two main sector contributors, declined sharply. We expect a moderate pick-up of in overall volumes in 2024.

      Italian bank quarterly: upbeat guidance to better earnings in 2024 should be treated with caution

      14/2/2024 Research EN

      Italian bank quarterly: upbeat guidance to better earnings in 2024 should be treated with caution

      Italian banks had a record year in 2023, thanks to high commercial spreads and low loan-loss provisions. Operating conditions look less favourable now, with rate cuts expected from the second half and default rates set to rise gradually.

      Structured Finance Activity Report: negative rating drift continues reversal

      14/2/2024 Research EN

      Structured Finance Activity Report: negative rating drift continues reversal

      Scope’s 12-month trailing negative rating drift in structured finance continued to subside in Q4 2023, moving further off the trough reached in Q2 2023. The downtrend started in Q4 2021 owing to the deteriorating economic environment.

      Telecommunication sector credit outlook stable on resilient cash flow; fixed-line capex remains high

      14/2/2024 Research EN

      Telecommunication sector credit outlook stable on resilient cash flow; fixed-line capex remains high

      The credit outlook for the European telecommunications services sector is stable. Corporate profitability remains robust despite low revenue growth. Steady mobile-related capital expenditure contrasts with higher fixed-line spending on fibre networks.

      Italian NPL collections: lower extrajudicial proceeds drag 2023 volumes down

      13/2/2024 Research EN

      Italian NPL collections: lower extrajudicial proceeds drag 2023 volumes down

      December Italian NPL collections rose by 87% month-on-month to EUR226m. But they were still 12% below the average of December 2021 and 2022. Collections for the whole of 2023 fell by 21% against the previous two-year average.

      Real estate outlook: negative credit prospects in sector where scale, diversification crucial

      13/2/2024 Research EN

      Real estate outlook: negative credit prospects in sector where scale, diversification crucial

      The credit outlook in European real estate will diverge further this year: stable for firms with higher-quality assets, low leverage, robust business models and sufficient scale to refinance debt without sacrificing investment– and negative for the rest.

      Germany: reforming the debt brake could raise public investment and support growth

      12/2/2024 Research EN

      Germany: reforming the debt brake could raise public investment and support growth

      Germany’s energy-intensive industries, low investment, ageing population, weak growth and geopolitical vulnerabilities, rather than high government debt, represent long-term challenges to its AAA credit rating – hence the need to reform the debt brake.

      Chemicals sector outlook shifts to negative from stable: cost control, cash preservation in focus

      12/2/2024 Research EN

      Chemicals sector outlook shifts to negative from stable: cost control, cash preservation in focus

      Leverage in Europe’s chemicals sector will improve this year after peaking in 2023, but a return to more typical levels will have to wait until 2025 given the prolonged cyclical downturn. Offsetting high raw-material and energy costs is still a challenge.