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30/4/2024 Research EN
Strategic case for Western European banks in CEE remains intact
Faster growth and higher interest rates in Central and Eastern Europe have boosted the profitability of Western European banks present in the region and supported their credit profiles. The strategic case for maintaining their presence remains intact.
24/4/2024 Research EN
Norwegian Savings Banks: strong profitability set to continue
Norwegian savings banks have displayed strong profitability on the back of the supportive interest-rate environment. We expect this to continue. The pace of credit expansion has abated but the banks have managed to continue growing their loan books.
24/4/2024 Research EN
EU banks NPL Heatmaps: modest increases to continue
Non-performing loans (NPLs) of EU banks continued to increase, hitting EUR 364.9bn according to the EBA’s latest Risk Dashboard showing data to Q4 2023. But the consolidated NPL ratio, at 1.85%, is still close to the historical low.
23/4/2024 Research EN
Euro area sovereign credit: some ratings under pressure as fiscal challenges mount
Euro area governments unable to put in place consistent medium-term fiscal plans face credit-rating pressure even though reducing public borrowing is possible, including for highly indebted countries.
22/4/2024 Research EN
The Wide Angle: Bank analysis needs to move with the times
When it comes to assessing banks, high customer satisfaction, progress in digitalisation or brand value do not win arguments in investment, credit, or rating committees if financial metrics are not sufficiently reassuring.
22/4/2024 Research EN
Germany: rating outlook stable despite near-term economic stagnation and fiscal challenges
After five years of near-zero cumulative growth since the pandemic, Germany’s economic recovery is unlikely to accelerate without adequate policy reform and an increase in net investment, supported by its significant fiscal space.
17/4/2024 Research EN
Middle-east crisis: geopolitics remains a downside risk for the global economic and credit outlook
A full-scale Middle-East conflict is unlikely but any further escalation of tensions would have significant adverse consequences for commodity markets and inflation, affirming geopolitical developments as a core credit challenge globally.
17/4/2024 Research EN
Covered Bond Quarterly: Have German banks put Pfandbriefe at risk?
After a strong January, EUR benchmark covered bond issuance slowed in February and March. Some of the reluctance to issue may have been driven by Germany’s specialised commercial mortgage lenders, given rising tensions in commercial real estate.