Austria’s fiscal-consolidation plan presented to the European Commission should lower the budget deficit to close to 3% of GDP in 2025, although execution risks remain. Sustainable longer-term fiscal consolidation depends on pension and welfare reform.

The Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) sovereign credit outlook is balanced, a rebound in growth broadly offsetting structural pressures amid fiscal and geopolitical challenges. Of 15 rated CEE sovereigns, three have Positive and 12 have Stable Outlooks.

Lithuania is set to outperform Estonia and Latvia fiscally and economically in the short to medium term, driven by structural, cyclical and policy-related factors reflected in latest rating actions on the three Baltic states.

The collapse of the French government will delay near-term fiscal consolidation and far-reaching reforms. France’s institutional safeguards should prevent a budget stalemate, but prolonged political gridlock could be credit negative.

Normalising global economic fundamentals partially offset rising fiscal pressures and geopolitical uncertainty in 2025, ensuring a balanced overall sovereign credit outlook, says Scope Ratings.

Developments in Ukraine amid possible shifts in US foreign, defence and energy policy will be pivotal in determining European supranationals’ strategies and disbursements next year.

Tuesday, 3 December 2024, 15:30 CET

The credit rating Outlooks for supranational institutions and multilateral development banks (MDBs) rated by Scope remain Stable, signalling that risks facing the high-rated issuers are balanced going into the new year despite geopolitical uncertainties.

As challenging as France’s fiscal and political outlooks are, the country’s underlying credit strengths include a favourable profile of government debt – for which there is ample investor appetite – a resilient economy and well-capitalised banks.

Germany needs a stable and reform-oriented government to respond to the impact of president-elect Donald Trump’s potential policy shifts that will impact Germany’s trade, fiscal and defence policies.