The UK budget sets an ambitious growth-oriented approach, but questions remain over its ability to meaningfully boost long-run economic growth. The easing of budgetary constraints and reduced monetary flexibility pose credit challenges.

Public finances in the US remain the main macro-economic challenge, which, in the context of the country’s flawed fiscal framework and political polarisation, will continue to deteriorate, but to different degrees depending on the election outcome.

The Positive Outlook on Greece’s BBB- ratings is underscored by falling public debt, a more resilient banking system, and structural reforms to tackle economic vulnerabilities. Our baseline is for primary budget surpluses to be sustained in coming years.

Georgia’s coming elections highlight its balancing act between managing ties with the West and a complex relationship with Russia. Competing visions for the nation’s future, challenging geopolitics and sanctions risks threaten the sovereign’s ratings.

Thursday, October 31st 2024 - 11:30 AM (CET)

Italy aims to accelerate fiscal tightening to exit the excessive deficit procedure earlier than expected, but high public debt, structural economic weaknesses and unfavourable demographics pose challenges to the medium-term outlook.

Germany is facing severe demographic challenges with more acute structural pressures than other advanced economies. Labour-market and pension reforms are essential, but fragmented politics risks eroding the country’s competitiveness.

The US and global economies remain resilient ahead of forthcoming US elections. However, Europe’s economic fragility poses challenges for credit despite support from the easing of interest rates.

Türkiye’s restrictive monetary policy continues to drive disinflation, bolster external accounts and replenish official reserves, improving the country’s long-term credit outlook despite persistently high inflation and a wide budget deficit.

Mario Draghi has reminded European policy makers of the critical need to regain economic ground lost to the United States, but the gap is less wide than it first appears, with the challenges of resilience and productivity concentrated in southern Europe.