11/12/2024 Research EN
French banks outlook: Fundamentals support profitability; political uncertainty clouds loan growth
French banks have underperformed EU peers on profitability in 2024, mainly due to slower balance-sheet repricing. We expect revenue growth in 2025, but political uncertainty will weigh on market confidence and could delay the recovery in lending volumes.
6/12/2024 Research EN
Norway: positive credit implications from banking sector consolidation
Savings bank consolidation has accelerated in 2024. With integration risks and capital impacts well controlled, this is positive from a credit risk perspective given economies of scale, stronger market positions, and business and regional diversification.
26/11/2024 Research EN
UniCredit flexes robust financial position to pursue growth in Italy and Europe
UniCredit is pursuing growth both nationally and internationally. If its bid for Banco BPM is successful, it will rebalance the group’s exposure to the Italian market while reshaping the domestic competitive landscape.
21/11/2024 Research EN
Spanish banks 2025 outlook: strong economy supports loan growth, tax extension could erode profits
Spanish banks enjoyed a strong Q3 driven again by high interest margins and low provisions. The challenge now is to return to steady loan growth while generating more commissions as interest margins shrink. Extension of the bank tax could erode profits.
18/11/2024 Research EN
Italian Bank Quarterly: strengthening business models amid less favourable earnings outlook
Italian banks have revised their 2024 earnings forecasts after strong nine-month results underpinned by resilient net interest income, a rebound in fees, and solid credit quality. Lenders are now focused on stabilising profits through the rate cycle.
18/11/2024 Research EN
Divergent household strategies to optimise borrowing costs may put financial stability at risk
Homeowners in some European markets prefer floating-rate mortgages while others prefer longer-dated fixed interest rates. Given that borrowing costs are all linked to the same ECB rates, this is somewhat counter intuitive.
7/11/2024 Research EN
Car finance exposures will have moderate impact on UK banks rated by Scope
The recent UK Court of Appeal ruling in favour of consumers on undisclosed commissions on car finance is expected to have a moderate impact on UK banks rated by Scope, reducing profits at some banks but not posing systemic risk.
29/10/2024 Research EN
Covered Bond Quarterly: Reviving publicly guaranteed collateral could boost European competitiveness
With sovereign credit quality reflecting fiscal and economic challenges, the Draghi report offered valuable insights into how to address some structural issues facing the euro area. But the report was notably silent on the contribution of covered bonds.