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      Italian Bank Quarterly: benign operating conditions support performance

      22/5/2024 Research EN

      Italian Bank Quarterly: benign operating conditions support performance

      With better-than-expected operating conditions, 2024 looks favourable for Italian banks. However, latent risks persist, as evidenced by developments around eco tax credits.

      Pfandbriefe investors shielded from volatile CRE valuations

      21/5/2024 Research EN

      Pfandbriefe investors shielded from volatile CRE valuations

      With our negative CRE outlook persisting and the collateral values of CRE loans volatile, covenant breaches are also driving up NPLs. Regulators are seeking to address value volatility, but Pfandbriefe are shielded because of cover-pool eligibility caps.

      BBVA’s Sabadell bid reflects solid prospects for Spanish banking sector

      15/5/2024 Research EN

      BBVA’s Sabadell bid reflects solid prospects for Spanish banking sector

      BBVA’s determination to pursue Banco de Sabadell and Sabadell’s confidence in its standalone strategy align with our view of the supportive banking environment in Spain, which remains an attractive market to deploy capital.

      Bank Capital Quarterly: dealing with the TBTF dilemma

      14/5/2024 Research EN

      Bank Capital Quarterly: dealing with the TBTF dilemma

      Significant efforts have been made since the GFC to improve the supervision of systemically important banks and address the issue of too-big-to-fail. But on this and the effectiveness of AT1s in supporting G-SIB recovery, there is room for improvement.

      German covered bonds not imperilled by CRE but office exposure a concern

      13/5/2024 Research EN

      German covered bonds not imperilled by CRE but office exposure a concern

      EU supervisors remain concerned that banks’ real-estate exposure is vulnerable, and US contagion risk is an issue. But while German banks’ CRE portfolios are unlikely to have endangered the safe-haven status of Pfandbriefe, office exposure is a worry.

      Strategic case for Western European banks in CEE remains intact

      30/4/2024 Research EN

      Strategic case for Western European banks in CEE remains intact

      Faster growth and higher interest rates in Central and Eastern Europe have boosted the profitability of Western European banks present in the region and supported their credit profiles. The strategic case for maintaining their presence remains intact.

      Norwegian Savings Banks: strong profitability set to continue

      24/4/2024 Research EN

      Norwegian Savings Banks: strong profitability set to continue

      Norwegian savings banks have displayed strong profitability on the back of the supportive interest-rate environment. We expect this to continue. The pace of credit expansion has abated but the banks have managed to continue growing their loan books.

      EU banks NPL Heatmaps: modest increases to continue

      24/4/2024 Research EN

      EU banks NPL Heatmaps: modest increases to continue

      Non-performing loans (NPLs) of EU banks continued to increase, hitting EUR 364.9bn according to the EBA’s latest Risk Dashboard showing data to Q4 2023. But the consolidated NPL ratio, at 1.85%, is still close to the historical low.

      The Wide Angle: Bank analysis needs to move with the times

      22/4/2024 Research EN

      The Wide Angle: Bank analysis needs to move with the times

      When it comes to assessing banks, high customer satisfaction, progress in digitalisation or brand value do not win arguments in investment, credit, or rating committees if financial metrics are not sufficiently reassuring.

      Covered Bond Quarterly: Have German banks put Pfandbriefe at risk?

      17/4/2024 Research EN

      Covered Bond Quarterly: Have German banks put Pfandbriefe at risk?

      After a strong January, EUR benchmark covered bond issuance slowed in February and March. Some of the reluctance to issue may have been driven by Germany’s specialised commercial mortgage lenders, given rising tensions in commercial real estate.